The Research Institute for Democracy, Society, and Emerging Technology (DSET) was invited to a panel hosted by the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) on November 4. The panel, Drones and Deterrence: Building Taiwan’s Asymmetric Capabilities, was moderated by Molly Campbell, Deputy Director of the CNAS Defense Program. Panelists included Mr. Hong-Lun Tiunn, Deputy Director of the National Security Program at DSET; Dr. Ely Ratner, Principal at the Marathon Initiative and former U.S. Assistant Secretary of War for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs; and Dr. Stacie Pettyjohn, Director of the CNAS Defense Program. The panel attracted about 50 in-person attendees and around 300 online participants, reflecting growing attention to Taiwan’s emerging uncrewed systems strategy and U.S.–Taiwan defense cooperation.
Taiwan’s Uncrewed Systems Strategy
Mr. Hong-Lun Tiunn outlined Taiwan’s twofold strategy and rapid progress in developing uncrewed systems, particularly drones. He explained Taiwan’s policy of, on one hand, localizing small drone production, and on the other, partnering with allies such as the United States to co-develop larger systems. For small drone production, the Taiwanese government aims to achieve an annual capacity of 180,000 units by 2028, supported by its procurement plans totaling more than 100,000 units by 2030. Based on DSET’s research, Mr. Tiunn noted that Taiwan’s production capacity has advanced rapidly. While production remained around 10,000 units last year, Taiwan exported over 45,000 units as of September this year. He further emphasized that Taiwan’s approach focuses on faster acquisition and deployment of reliable platforms, prioritizing scalability. Taiwan’s exports, particularly to Poland, have helped domestic companies improve their systems through real-world use and build a sustainable uncrewed systems ecosystem.
Threat Assessment and Replicator Insights
Dr. Ely Ratner assessed the threat Taiwan faces and shared U.S. experiences with uncrewed systems development through the Replicator Initiative, the U.S. plan to procure large numbers of uncrewed systems for the Indo-Pacific theater. He explained that 2027 remains significant as the Chinese military’s modernization milestone rather than a literal “go” date. He further identified three lessons China has drawn from the Ukraine war: the importance of developing uncrewed capabilities, the need to prepare for prolonged conflict, and the potential for coercion below the threshold of invasion. Focusing on the Replicator Initiative, he discussed challenges such as aligning priorities across resources like funding and training, keeping pace with rapid technological change, establishing holistic operational concepts, and coordinating deployment with regional allies. He viewed Taiwan’s increase in defense spending as a positive step toward overcoming resource constraints and encouraged a stronger focus on counter-UAS development and comprehensive policy architectures.
Uncrewed Capabilities in Modern Warfare
Dr. Stacie Pettyjohn discussed how uncrewed systems are transforming modern warfare by increasing transparency and lethality on the battlefield. She stressed the importance of cost-effective mass production and noted that uncrewed systems complement rather than replace traditional weapons. For Taiwan, she highlighted that integrating scalable, low-cost uncrewed systems with existing anti-ship missile capabilities would increase its ability to attrit invading fleets with saturation attacks, strengthen its sea-denial capability, and ultimately enhance deterrence against China.
Operational Applications and Challenges
Participants raised questions about electronic warfare, fiber-optic drones, and underwater uncrewed vehicles (UUVs). Mr. Tiunn explained that the scalability and cost efficiency of drones, along with closer U.S. cooperation on counter-UAS technology, are key to addressing China’s electronic warfare capabilities. He also pointed out that fiber-optic drones face limitations at sea due to weather and wire constraints. On UUVs, he analyzed Taiwan’s strategy as developing various types of uncrewed capabilities first to ensure that, regardless of the type eventually needed, the systems can be scaled up quickly to meet operational demands.
When asked about countering gray-zone coercion, Mr. Tiunn highlighted Taiwan’s Coast Guard as an example of how uncrewed systems and other reconnaissance capabilities are integrated to enhance maritime awareness. Dr. Ratner added that Taiwan could also explore an asymmetric salami-slicing strategy to counter Chinese gray-zone coercion in the opposite direction.
