The Energy Security and Climate Resilience Team and National Security Team under Research Institute for Democracy, Society, and Emerging Technology (DSET) on Nov. 3 met with two senior experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) to discuss Taiwan’s evolving energy and security landscape.
In the morning, the DSET delegation held a detailed exchange with Mark F. Cancian, Senior Advisor at CSIS’s Defense and Security Department, on maritime logistics, blockade dynamics, and supply continuity under gray-zone coercion. In the afternoon, the team met with Jane Nakano, Senior Fellow in the Energy Security and Climate Change Program, for an in-depth dialogue on Northeast Asia’s clean-energy transition and the implications for regional resilience and cooperation.
Assessing Taiwan’s resilience under gray-zone pressure
The DSET delegation—led by Tsai-Ying Lu, Director of Energy Security and Climate Resilience, and Hung-Lun Tiunn, Deputy Director of National Security, —shared DSET’s insights on the economic and logistical effects of a Taiwan Strait quarantine.
Discussions with Cancian compared the research to CSIS’s long-running series of Taiwan conflict simulations, focusing on supply chain vulnerability, maritime insurance, and civilian preparedness. Both sides underscored that disruptions to shipping could occur well below the threshold of armed conflict, requiring non-military policy tools such as government-backed insurance pools, diversified LNG and coal logistics, and allied arrangements to maintain essential flows.
The discussion also covered the differences in each team’s assumptions about the wartime scenarios, including how industries and residential areas might voluntarily respond to the crisis, as well as the Taiwanese government’s possible actions regarding rationing and prioritization. Although assumptions vary, both teams agree on the need to strengthen the power grid, prepare the merchant fleets, and develop a more detailed contingency plan for various sectors to anticipate future developments.
Energy security and decarbonization in Northeast Asia
In the afternoon, DSET met with Nakano for a wide-ranging dialogue on Northeast Asia’s evolving energy landscape. The discussion covered Taiwan’s LNG sourcing diversification, nuclear policy debates, and the emerging hydrogen electrolyzer and perovskite solar supply chains that are reshaping industrial competitiveness across the region.
The conversation also explored Taiwan’s nuclear-energy debate and the potential firm-power options for large load growth from semiconductor manufacturing and AI data centers, alongside ongoing challenges in waste management and safety regulation. DSET shared findings on how lessons from Ukraine’s wartime grid vulnerabilities can inform Taiwan’s infrastructure-protection strategy.
Finally, the dialogue addressed hydrogen supply chains and China’s growing dominance in electrolyzer manufacturing. DSET presented new research on solid-oxide technologies that could help democratic partners retain competitiveness in next-generation hydrogen systems.
Building trusted expertise and dialogue
The two meetings marked another milestone in DSET’s outreach to Washington’s policy community. By combining energy-security analysis with contingency-planning expertise, DSET aims to strengthen international collaboration on resilient infrastructure, diversified clean-energy supply chains, and democratic technology governance.
