The Atlantic Council on Dec. 4 held a virtual event titled “Enhancing Taiwan’s energy resilience: A cross-strait and beyond seminar.” This was the final event of the year under the council’s Indo-Pacific Security Initiative (IPSI) Cross Strait Beyond Seminar Series. It was held in partnership with the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States, and invited DSET’s Energy Security and Climate Resilience research program Director, Dr. Tsaiying Lu, as a speaker.
Markus Garlauskas, Director of The Atlantic Council’s IPSI and the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, delivered the opening remarks, followed by discussions with Victor Atkins, IPSI Nonresident Senior Fellow, and Joseph Webster, Senior Fellow at IPSI and Global Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center. Lauren Gilber, IPSI Deputy Director, served as moderator.
In her opening presentation, Dr. Lu outlined the potential ramifications of a quarantine of Taiwan. She discussed the likely disruption to global trade, examined Taiwan’s energy vulnerabilities, and concluded by proposing possible short-term countermeasures against China’s grey-zone tactics regarding Taiwan’s energy sector.
Dr. Lu also analyzed the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) actions, explaining how the PRC could escalate military exercises into a full-scale quarantine. Drawing on DSET’s simulation, she described how China might target energy vessels bound for Taiwan by asserting legal authority over the Taiwan Strait—potentially in tandem with cyberattacks and other grey zone activities, such as cable cutting. While she noted that Taiwan can prepare to counter these tactics through careful planning, she stressed the importance of logistical and diplomatic support from allies. Dr. Lu also highlighted that, although future plans address risks posed by natural disasters to the state energy grid, the major challenges remain Taiwan’s transmission bottleneck, coordination with civilian affairs, and the need to diversify LNG imports.
Joseph Webster emphasized the need for resilience planners to focus on northern Taiwan, where the energy grid is most vulnerable. He advocated for an all-of-the-above energy strategy and called for a coordinated U.S.-Taiwan energy resilience program. Victor Atkins discussed the intersection of transmission grid vulnerabilities and cybersecurity in the Taiwanese context, warning that as energy grids become increasingly digitized, the risks and potential damages from Chinese cyberattacks are growing.
During the Q&A session, speakers addressed topics including the technical realities of Taiwan’s energy grid, recommendations for U.S. leadership, and the role of Asian partners such as Japan in supporting Taiwan. DSET’s Energy Security and Climate Resilience Research Program will continue to monitor developments in Taiwan’s energy security and explore opportunities to strengthen cooperation with like-minded partners.
