U.S. President Donald Trump’s second-term defense policies are reshaping Taiwan-U.S. military cooperation and strategic support. DSET researcher Hong-Lun Tiunn has published an op-ed on The Diplomat, titled “Uncertainty and Strategic Shifts in Taiwan-U.S. Defense Cooperation Under Trump 2.0.” The article examines changes in Foreign Military Sales (FMS), Foreign Military Financing (FMF), Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), and Taiwan’s drone industry, analyzing the implications of U.S. military aid policy shifts on Taiwan’s defense strategy.
Delays in U.S. Arms Sales and Financial Pressures
The article highlights that Taiwan is currently awaiting $21.95 billion worth of U.S. arms sales, with 72% of these orders originating from Trump’s first term. However, key weapon systems, including F-16V fighter jets, HIMARS rocket systems, and MQ-9B drones, have faced delivery delays exceeding four years, affecting Taiwan’s defense planning.
The Trump administration recently issued a 90-day freeze on foreign military aid, and while Taiwan has been exempted, future arms sales conditions and funding allocations remain uncertain. U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Under Secretary of Defense for Policy nominee Elbridge Colby have both emphasized that the U.S. should no longer subsidize allied defense unconditionally and have suggested that Taiwan increase its defense budget to 10% of GDP. This shift indicates a restructuring of the U.S.-Taiwan military cooperation financial framework, potentially imposing greater financial burdens on Taiwan and affecting future arms sales and military aid mechanisms.
Uncertainty in Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) and Adjustments in U.S. Military Sales
During the Biden administration, Taiwan benefited from multiple rounds of rapid military aid through the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), including packages in July 2023, September 2024, and December 2024. However, the Trump administration has prioritized “America First”, with Secretary of Defense Hegseth stating that U.S. military readiness must take precedence over assistance to allies, raising concerns that PDA-based aid to Taiwan could be reduced or even terminated.
Additionally, the Pentagon’s ongoing review of arms export policies may further delay Taiwan’s acquisition of F-16V fighter jets, HIMARS rocket systems, and other key military assets, potentially disrupting Taiwan’s defense modernization efforts. Given these uncertainties, Taiwan must reevaluate its defense resource allocation and seek additional military partnerships to reduce reliance on a single supplier.
Challenges in Taiwan’s Drone Industry Development
Alongside shifts in military aid mechanisms, Taiwan faces growing challenges in developing defense self-sufficiency, particularly in the drone industry. As Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) become a critical component of modern warfare, Taiwan’s Overall Defense Concept (ODC) has positioned drone development as a strategic priority. However, the industry remains highly dependent on imported advanced sensors and secure communication modules, and the uncertainties surrounding FMS delays, PDA aid, and FMF funding have made acquiring U.S. drone technology more difficult. Future purchases of MQ-9B drones and other military UAVs could also face stricter conditions and scrutiny.
To address these challenges, Taiwan is actively promoting the Minhsiung Aerospace and Drone Industrial Park to enhance supply chain resilience and advancing the “Teng Yun” drone project, which focuses on improving navigation and stealth capabilities. Additionally, Taiwan is actively engaging with European and Japanese partners to diversify technological sources and reduce reliance on U.S. defense technologies, ensuring the stable development of its drone industry.
Strategic Adjustments in Taiwan-U.S. Defense Cooperation
DSET researcher Hong-Lun Tiunn notes that compared to the Biden administration’s emphasis on rapid response and regional stability, Trump’s defense policy takes a fundamentally different approach. He points out that Trump’s shift toward a “transactional alliance and self-reliance strategy” will impact Taiwan’s defense autonomy and military cooperation. Given the changing landscape of U.S. arms sales policies, Taiwan must adopt a more pragmatic and diversified defense strategy, including increasing defense budgets to ensure stable arms procurement, strengthening military cooperation with European and Japanese allies to reduce dependence on the U.S., and deepening security dialogues with Washington to maintain stability in arms sales and military aid frameworks.
The article concludes that in response to Trump’s military policy shift, Taiwan must bolster defense self-sufficiency and actively expand international security cooperation to adapt to evolving conditions and ensure long-term strategic stability and national security.
The full article has been published in The Diplomat, inviting policymakers, scholars, and defense experts to engage in discussions on the future of Taiwan-U.S. defense cooperation.