Trump 2.0: A Paradigm Shift in U.S. AI Policy
As Donald Trump eyes a return to the White House, he has vowed to repeal Biden’s executive orders on artificial intelligence (AI), pledging to end what he describes as an era of “overregulation” and promote a market-driven approach to innovation. Could this signal weaker safeguards and increased risks? In this op-ed, You-Hao Lai, our Non-Resident Fellow, offers an in-depth analysis of how a Trump 2.0 administration could fundamentally reshape U.S. AI policy.
Biden’s AI Framework: Towards Safe and Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence
To predict Trump’s potential changes, it’s essential to first understand the AI policy agenda under the Biden administration. Biden’s AI framework is built around three key strategic objectives:
1️⃣ Ensuring AI Safety
The Biden administration emphasizes the safety of AI technologies, aiming to prevent potential harm in sensitive areas such as healthcare, finance, and defense, while also addressing the national security challenges posed by AI.
2️⃣ Protecting Privacy and Ensuring Fairness
AI has the potential to infringe on privacy and amplify social inequalities. Biden places a strong emphasis on protecting privacy, safeguarding vulnerable groups, addressing algorithmic discrimination, and tackling the challenges AI poses to the labor market.
3️⃣ Promoting innovation, competition, and global leadership
Ensuring that the United States leads in AI research and development, maintains a fair and competitive market environment, and collaborates with international allies to establish a framework for responsible AI governance.
Key Policy Instruments: Regulation, Nudge, and Promotion
1️⃣ Regulation: For example, under the Defense Production Act, the Biden administration requires developers of powerful foundational models to report to the Department of Commerce for safety assessments. It also leverages the Federal Trade Commission’s (FTC) authority to combat market monopolies. Additionally, efforts are ongoing to strengthen economic security over AI chips and critical technologies.
2️⃣ Nudge: Initiatives include encouraging companies like Google and Meta to sign voluntary commitments and implementing the AI Risk Management Framework to guide industry self-regulation.
3️⃣ Promotion: The administration has invested $140 million through the National Science Foundation to support AI research institutions and attract global talent.
Trump’s AI Policy Vision: Goodbye “DEI,” Hello Innovation and Competition
In contrast to the Biden administration’s focus on safety “guardrails” for AI development, Trump’s approach emphasizes fostering an unrestricted, market-driven environment for innovation. This vision can be summarized in three key areas:
1️⃣ Innovation First, Dropping DEI
Republicans have criticized Biden’s policies for placing excessive emphasis on “Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion” (DEI), arguing that it stifles AI innovation. The Trump administration plans to dismantle these policies, shifting the focus toward fostering competition and innovation by minimizing government intervention in areas such as “algorithmic discrimination” and “vulnerable group protections.”
2️⃣ Market-Driven Approach Over Risk Management
The Trump administration views excessive regulation as a barrier to technological progress, particularly in AI development and application. For instance, while Biden’s policies require foundational model developers to submit testing reports, Trump sees such requirements as unnecessary “market interference” and is likely to eliminate them.
3️⃣ Enhancing National Security and Military AI Applications
In the realm of national security, Trump is expected to not only sustain but expand Biden-era AI policies, with a greater focus on harnessing cutting-edge AI technologies for defense purposes. This includes ambitious initiatives such as a “Manhattan Project” for military AI development.
Trump’s AI Policy in the Context of U.S.-China Competition
1️⃣ Policy Continuity Amid the “Tech Cold War”
While the Trump administration aims to reduce domestic regulations, those tied to U.S.-China competition are likely to be further strengthened. Export controls and investment screening introduced under the Biden administration are expected to continue under Trump, with stricter enforcement and tougher penalties for violations.
2️⃣ Addressing Energy Infrastructure for AI Development
AI development demands substantial computational resources and energy. Trump may ease regulations on nuclear power and data center construction to strengthen the infrastructure supporting the AI industry.
3️⃣ Ambiguity in Antitrust Policy
While the Trump camp generally prioritizes reducing government intervention in business, Vice President J.D. Vance supports robust antitrust enforcement. This contrast adds uncertainty to the future direction of U.S. antitrust policies.
Future Outlook: Balancing Innovation and Risk
Taiwan has long been a critical hub in the global AI ecosystem. While the specifics of AI policies under a potential Trump 2.0 administration remain uncertain, one thing is clear: the United States will intensify its pursuit of innovation and competition to secure its lead in the U.S.-China tech cold war.
Amid this escalating techno-geopolitical rivalry, Taiwan must closely track the evolution of U.S. AI policies over the next four years. A forward-looking perspective will enable Taiwan to navigate the global landscape more effectively, address challenges, and seize emerging opportunities.
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