As Trump’s second term approaches, the Research Institute for Democracy, Society, and Emerging Technology (DSET) Climate Resilience and Sustainability Research Program recently published an op-ed in The Diplomat, highlighting how the new Trump administration, while dimming the outlook for U.S. climate policy and posing certain challenges for Taiwan, also presents new opportunities for Taiwan’s climate and energy security policies.
The op-ed analyzes Taiwan’s role in the Indo-Pacific following the U.S. retreat from international climate leadership, arguing that Taiwan should take a more proactive role in regional cooperation and engage in both competition and collaboration with China on climate issues. It notes that Trump’s tariffs on Chinese clean technology could create opportunities for Taiwanese manufacturers to enter the U.S. market. Additionally, the U.S. shift back to fossil fuels and the resumption of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports may, in the short term, align with Taiwan’s energy transition goals. The authors also call for Taiwan and the U.S. to incorporate energy security into their existing defense cooperation framework.
On international climate cooperation, DSET research assistant Elizabeth Frost and affiliated researcher Lin Meng-Hui point out that Trump’s return to the “America First” policy is expected to lead to the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and possibly even the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), undermining the UN’s credibility as a global climate governance institution. With the U.S. stepping back from climate leadership, countries will need to strengthen regional cooperation. As the third country in Asia to enshrine a net-zero target into law, Taiwan has a track record of assisting climate-vulnerable regions and small island nations with disaster prevention technology. The authors argue that Taiwan is well-positioned to deepen cooperation with other Asian democracies and counter China’s monopolization of regional climate leadership.
Regarding concerns over Trump’s potential rollback of clean energy investments under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the op-ed acknowledges that while these cuts may temporarily impact U.S. clean energy growth, the broader trend of energy transition will continue. It also points out that Trump’s protectionist policies—including high tariffs and increased scrutiny on Chinese imports—will limit China’s technological influence in the U.S. market, creating new opportunities for Taiwanese firms to enter the supply chain with advanced manufacturing capabilities. The authors suggest that, in response to U.S. industrial reshoring policies, Taiwanese companies could follow TSMC’s model of establishing manufacturing facilities in the U.S. and expanding overseas investments.
As Trump plans to embrace fossil fuels by appointing Chris Wright, a senior executive from the U.S. fossil fuel industry, as Secretary of Energy and significantly increasing U.S. oil and gas production, DSET’s op-ed emphasizes that in the short term, expanded U.S. LNG exports will support Taiwan’s goal of increasing natural gas to 50% of its power generation mix by 2025. This will also strengthen Taiwan-U.S. strategic relations in response to potential Chinese energy blockades in the Taiwan Strait. Furthermore, if the U.S. advances carbon capture (CCS), blue hydrogen, and geothermal energy technologies, Taiwan could position itself ahead of the curve by collaborating with Australia and Japan on hydrogen supply chains or leveraging its domestic energy transition focus on geothermal power to align with U.S. energy strategies.
On the issue of energy security budgeting, the op-ed notes that Trump’s push for Taiwan to raise its defense budget to 5% of GDP is likely to become a key point of negotiation between the U.S. and Taiwan. If the U.S. counts only arms purchases within the defense budget, this could divert funding from Taiwan’s energy transition, prolonging dependence on imported energy and exacerbating Taiwan’s vulnerability to Chinese blockades.
The op-ed emphasizes that Taiwan’s Presidential Office has already established the Whole-of-Society Defense Resilience Committee, which prioritizes energy resilience and infrastructure protection. This policy direction has received backing from American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) Director Raymond Greene, who has reaffirmed U.S. support for strengthening Taiwan’s energy resilience. DSET urges that, under the incoming Trump administration, U.S.-Taiwan defense budget negotiations should follow this existing policy direction—recognizing energy security as a national security concern and integrating it into defense budget planning. By jointly accelerating the energy transition, Taiwan and the U.S. can demonstrate to the international community that clean energy is not only crucial for climate goals but also essential for national security.