As China conducted large-scale military exercises near Taiwan in early April and continued its daily incursions into the island’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), growing attention has turned to how Taiwan would secure its energy supply in the event of an escalation or a full-scale maritime blockade. The concern is especially pressing given Taiwan’s heavy dependence on energy imports — particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG).
In a recent interview with Deutsche Welle, Tsaiying Lu, head of the Energy Resilience Group at the Research Institute for Democracy, Society, and Emerging Technology (DSET), shared findings from an ongoing DSET study on Taiwan’s wartime energy resilience. Responding to public concerns about the number of days Taiwan’s LNG reserves could last during a blockade, Lu said that based on publicly available data from Taiwan Power Company (台電) and projected wartime reductions in electricity demand, current LNG reserves — if combined with the use of strategic energy stockpiles and renewable energy sources — could sustain power generation for at least 40 days under blockade conditions.
Lu elaborated that this estimate was modeled on what DSET calls the “Second Day of Lunar New Year” scenario — typically the day of the year when Taiwan sees its lowest electricity consumption, due to the suspension of most industrial activities. The team used this as a proxy to simulate wartime electricity demand, since the government has never released an official wartime power consumption estimate for national security reasons.
“According to our assessment, demand [in case of a blockade] would be supported by coal-fired generators, and then gas turbines will be used for support when solar power starts to lower during the night.” Lu added that if electricity usage in specific industrial sectors were to be restricted, the overall number of days that power reserves could last might be extended further. Energy reserves could also be further extended by rationing electricity for certain industrial sectors.
The potential for energy shortages during a crisis has reignited debate within Taiwan over whether to restart its nuclear power program. The Deutsche Welle report pointed out that the government remains committed to its “nuclear-free homeland” policy and plans to shut down the island’s final operating nuclear reactor in May.
Meanwhile, a legislative battle is underway over potential amendments to laws governing the lifespan of nuclear reactors. Opposition parties are pushing to relax application deadlines for extending the operation of existing nuclear plants. According to Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs, nuclear power currently accounts for less than 3% of the island’s electricity generation.
Lu, however, cautioned against relying on nuclear energy in a wartime context, citing the example of the war in Ukraine.“ Nuclear facilities there became key targets for Russian military strikes,” she said, underscoring the strategic and safety risks associated with operating nuclear plants during armed conflict.
She also highlighted other practical challenges to restarting nuclear power, including the time and cost required to bring reactors back online, space limitations in spent fuel storage pools, unresolved issues surrounding nuclear waste disposal, and the broader social communication costs. Additionally, Lu emphasized that Taiwan must confront the reality of being located in an earthquake-prone region, with high geopolitical sensitivity — all factors that complicate a return to nuclear power.