The Indo-Pacific Security Initiative (IPSI) of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security held an online seminar on October 23 on “Countering the PRC’s gray-zone strategies: A cross-strait and beyond seminar.” Speakers included Philippine Coast Guard spokesperson Commodore Jay Tarriela, Ta-Chen Chen, Non-Resident Fellow at the Research Institute for Democracy, Society and Emerging Technology (DSET), and Nicole Lopez, Senior Defense Research Officer at the National Defense College of the Philippines.
The discussion covered the Philippines’ strategy to counter PRC’s gray-zone activities, Taiwan’s strategy for similar challenges, and how Taiwan could learn from the Philippines’ experience.
Chen stated that the core of the PRC’s gray zone activities lies in creating ambiguity to make it difficult for opponents to respond. However, such ambiguity can be effectively countered through existing international norms and prior policy planning. He emphasized that Taiwan’s key task should be to establish the legal framework and operational guidelines.
Chen categorized gray-zone activities into three types: clear violations of the law, propaganda actions with no legal substance, and “lawful but awful” behaviors—those that may be technically lawful but are malicious in intent and harmful to the international order.
He argued that by identifying the nature of gray-zone behaviors, governments can decide whether to respond through military, diplomatic, or counter-propaganda measures in a layered manner, avoiding easy concessions or unnecessary escalation. Recognizing the nature of such actions helps prevent the PRC from seizing the narrative.
Chen further noted that combining a comprehensive legal strategy with information-sharing mechanisms in the region can also help weaken the PRC’s narrative. He suggested that the Taiwanese government should establish mechanisms for cross-sectoral cooperation and information sharing with regional partners. Through diplomatic coordination and public transparency under a shared legal strategy, he said, Taiwan can effectively diminish the room for maneuver for Beijing’s gray zone activities.
