In February the U.S. think tank the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) released its latest report, Taiwan’s Push for Societal Resilience, examining Taiwan’s policy progress in three key areas of resilience: energy, medical services, and digital communications. The report also cites commentary from Tsaiying Lu, Director of the Energy Security and Climate Resilience Program at DSET.
The report draws on interviews with officials from Taiwan’s central government ministries, the Presidential Office’s Whole-of-Society Defense Resilience (WOSDR) Committee, local governments, as well as experts and scholars in relevant fields. It was co-authored by Bonnie S. Glaser, Managing Director of GMF’s Indo-Pacific Program, and Amanda Hsiao, Director in Eurasia Group’s China practice covering China’s foreign policy and cross-strait relations.
The report notes that in the energy domain, Taiwan’s heavy reliance on imported energy, combined with the relatively centralized structure of its power grid, renders it highly vulnerable in the event of a potential blockade or military conflict initiated by China. In response, the government has moved to increase natural gas and coal reserves, promote grid decentralization, and develop wartime electricity rationing and allocation mechanisms.
To further strengthen energy resilience, the government has undertaken comprehensive planning for wartime electricity rationing and allocation scenarios, which have been tested through cross-ministerial tabletop exercises under the WOSDR framework. In an interview, Tsaiying Lu stated that under a Taiwan Strait blockade scenario, Taiwan would rely primarily on coal-fired and renewable power generation, and that existing reserves could sustain operations for at least 40 days. The report further assesses that if electricity consumption by the industrial sector—accounting for approximately two-thirds of total national demand—were fully suspended, Taiwan’s power reserves could potentially be extended to around 120 days, supporting the policy objective of maintaining the “continuous operation of society” for six months.
However, a critical challenge for the government lies in determining when to activate emergency response mechanisms and at what point to tighten or relax electricity rationing measures. In particular, under a Taiwan Strait blockade scenario, the duration and degree of escalation would be highly uncertain, and such policy decisions would entail significant pressure and complexity.
In addition, existing legal frameworks remain insufficient. Lu noted that current regulations authorize electricity restrictions of up to 15 percent for industrial users, but do not explicitly account for circumstances of war or the possibility that authorities may need to enact controls well before power supplies begin to dwindle.
Although the president has constitutional authority to issue emergency decrees, such orders must be ratified by the Legislative Yuan within ten days. The report observes that, given Taiwan’s political polarization and the likelihood of incomplete information regarding China’s intentions during a crisis, critical decision-making at pivotal moments could face risks of delay.
Overall, the report commends Taiwan’s efforts to expand energy reserves and promote grid decentralization. It recommends that Taiwan further institutionalize stress tests of electricity rationing plans in coordination with industry, simulate a range of gray-zone scenarios, accelerate the expansion of coal and liquefied natural gas reserves, and advance energy diversification to reduce dependence on imports—thereby strengthening Taiwan’s overall energy security and societal resilience.
The German Marshall Fund of the United States is a nonpartisan, nonprofit, transatlantic policy organization committed to the idea that the United States and Europe are stronger together.
