Executive summary
China has positioned itself as an indispensable and responsible leader in the global green transition, driven not only by its climate objectives but also by broader strategic considerations aimed at expanding its political and economic influence. This report, based on analysis of China’s state-affiliated media, WeChat content, and interviews, identifies two key instruments through which China pursues leadership in the green transition: first, shaping global climate discourse through audience-tailored narratives; and second, consolidating its relative advantage in clean-tech supply chains via overseas investments in critical minerals. While China has made notable contributions to global renewable energy development, the report also highlights how its propaganda and investment strategies may advance specific political agendas and create “asymmetric dependency” risks—for example, China’s recent investment patterns in Indonesia’s nickel sector could undermine the Indonesian government’s long-term efforts to reduce reliance on foreign capital.
Key takeaways
China’s climate propaganda
- Climate change and green energy have become central themes in China’s propaganda, reflecting their strategic role in shaping influence and enhancing political legitimacy.
- China’s climate leadership narrative is strategically constructed through tailored state media messaging and implemented through “people-to-people” exchanges, with the aim of enhancing its discursive power in global climate governance.
- Whole of society engagement: government agencies, CCP bodies, state-owned enterprises, state-owned media, universities and other entities are all involved in efforts to promote China’s green leadership narratives. International NGOs act as bridges in organising trips – showing a pattern of long term collaboration and deeper engagement.
China’s critical mineral investments
- China has designated net-zero technologies as a national strategic priority, particularly solar panels, electric vehicles, and batteries, making critical minerals, including nickel, essential to economic growth. It channels overseas mineral outputs back to domestic importers to secure China’s relative advantage in the development and supply chains of net-zero technologies.
- Under the Belt and Road Initiative, China invests in overseas mineral extraction and refining, using a “policy paving the way, commercial follow-up” model to expand market participation by Chinese firms.
- Southeast Asian countries, particularly Indonesia, have become key partners; Chinese investment in nickel mining, refining, and battery production has created asymmetric dependencies, leaving Indonesia reliant on Chinese technology, capital, and markets.
Ways forward
- Continue systematic monitoring and research to build evidence-based case studies of China’s green economic diplomacy and climate-related influence activities.
- Develop an open-source platform to track China’s climate-focused soft power initiatives, improving transparency and policy awareness.
- Design strategies to mitigate asymmetric interdependence in critical mineral supply chains, including diversification of partners, investment screening, and strengthened governance in host countries.
Scope of the report
- Chapter 1 outlines China’s strategy to lead the global green transition, highlighting its dominance in renewable energy supply chains, the Green Belt and Road Initiative, influence in climate governance, and the geopolitical implications of its green ambitions.
- Chapter 2 analyzes China’s state media narratives on climate, energy transition, and critical minerals, comparing English- and Mandarin-language content and assessing implications for global climate governance, and examines climate- and energy-focused exchange trips for foreign audiences, including their potential links to the united front system, and the trips’ impact on participants’ perceptions of China.
- Chapter 3 uses OSINT research to assess China’s overseas critical mineral investment strategy in Southeast Asia, with a detailed case study of Indonesia’s nickel sector and industrial parks such as IMIP.
- Conclusion: Synthesizes findings to highlight the strategic risks associated with China’s green ambitions, the implications for international climate cooperation and geopolitical stability, and proposes ways forward.
Acknowledgements
On behalf of the Research Institute for Democracy, Society, and Emerging Technology (DSET), we recognize the invaluable contribution of our expert interviewees and reviewers whose insights informed and enriched this work. This report was independently reviewed and published by DSET. The findings and recommendations presented in this report are solely those of the authors and do not represent the official position of the interviewees, the Government of Taiwan or the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC).
