The Research Institute for Democracy, Society and Emerging Technology (DSET) National Security Program visited the RAND Corporation’s Arlington, Virginia office on May 4 and met with Dr. Michael S. Chase, Senior Political Scientist at RAND and former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia. Dr. Scott W. Harold, Associate Director of the RAND Center for Asia Pacific Policy, and other RAND researchers also attended. The two sides exchanged views on artificial general intelligence (AGI) tabletop exercise (TTX) methodology, UAS applications in Taiwan Strait contingencies and gray zone activities, and future collaboration. DSET and RAND have previously cooperated on AGI security issues, and this visit was part of the two sides’ ongoing dialogue.
During the meeting, Deputy Director of the National Security Program for Maritime Security Ta-Chen Chen raised questions on exercise design, and the RAND team elaborated on the design philosophy behind its “Infinite Potential” AGI exercise series. RAND researchers noted that the foremost consideration in TTX design is clearly defining the exercise’s objectives—in the case of RAND’s AGI TTX, the core purpose is to heighten participants’ risk awareness and guide them to consider extreme scenarios that are difficult to envision under normal circumstances.
The two sides also discussed the fundamental differences between tabletop exercises (TTX) and wargames: wargames involve more rigorous scenario parameters and evaluation criteria, suited for testing specific decision-making gaps and perspective-taking; TTXs focus on cognitive awareness and policy discussion, with each serving distinct roles in policy research. DSET Deputy Director of the National Security Program for Defense Industry Research Hong-Lun Tiunn and Policy Analyst Cathy Fang briefed RAND on the findings of DSET’s latest policy report, Drone Superpower: Ukraine’s UAV Success and Where Taiwan-Ukraine Cooperation Fits In, and discussed the policy implications of building non-red supply chains for the U.S. defense industrial base. The two sides exchanged views on Taiwan’s unique strategic position at the intersection of AGI competition and conventional military risk.
In addition, Non-Resident Fellow Fanny Chao raised the topic of possible UAS application scenarios in Taiwan Strait contingencies and gray zone activities. The two sides exchanged views on how to design related tabletop exercises and agreed to continue exchanges on this topic in the near future. The two sides also discussed future collaboration, including the possibility of DSET’s Washington-based team participating in subsequent RAND exercises, as well as continued dialogue on the implications of AGI and UAS for Taiwan’s defense. DSET also invited Dr. Chase to attend the DSET Annual Summit to be held in Taipei in June 2026.
