In February, the Washington-based think tank Center for a New American Security (CNAS) released “Hellscape for Taiwan: Rethinking Asymmetric Defense,” a report arguing that Taiwan should combine large numbers of unmanned systems with traditional weapons to build a layered asymmetric defense capable of deterring aggression without direct U.S. military intervention.
The report acknowledges exchanges with the DSET National Security team and cites several DSET studies on drone strategy and supply chains. DSET welcomes the collaboration and looks forward to continued dialogue.
Authored by Stacie Pettyjohn, Director of the CNAS Defense Program, and research assistant Molly Campbell, the report examines how Taiwan could use asymmetric capabilities to deny a potential amphibious invasion by the People’s Liberation Army. Since its release, it has drawn wide attention from international media and the strategic policy community.
The study builds on the “Hellscape” concept proposed in 2024 by Samuel Paparo, Commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command. It outlines a four-layer defensive zone extending roughly 80 kilometers from Taiwan’s coastline. Drawing lessons from Ukraine’s use of low-cost drones against Russian forces, the concept emphasizes large-scale deployment of unmanned systems to create a high-intensity, cross-domain strike environment that slows enemy operations and raises the cost of invasion.
The report suggests that Taiwan deploy long-range loitering munitions, anti-ship cruise missiles, and armed unmanned surface and underwater vehicles 40–80 kilometers offshore to disrupt an invading fleet. In the 5–40 kilometer zone, sea mines and air-defense systems could disrupt amphibious formations. Closer to shore, FPV drones, rockets, and short-range air-defense systems could suppress landing forces and prevent inland advances. The report notes that this approach builds on Taiwan’s existing “porcupine strategy,” using large numbers of low-cost drones to increase the uncertainty and cost of invasion.
The report also notes that under President Lai Ching-te, Taiwan has taken steps to expand investment in commercial drone manufacturing. Citing DSET data, it states that Taiwan’s drone industry grew by nearly 80 percent in value between 2023 and 2024. However, Taiwan still faces challenges, including higher manufacturing costs associated with building a “non-red” supply chain and reliance on allied partners for certain key technologies. Current production capacity also remains well below the government’s target of producing 180,000 drones annually by 2028.
To support the “Hellscape” concept, the report recommends allocating more resources to domestic drone production through Taiwan’s special defense budget and providing stable procurement signals to help scale industry capacity. It also cites a 2024 DSET policy commentary, “From Critical Chips to International Alliances: Taiwan’s Strategic Role in Shaping a Non-Chinese Drone Supply Chain,” which highlights Taiwan’s potential role as a key node in a global non-Chinese drone supply chain through deeper cooperation with European partners.
CNAS and DSET have maintained close exchanges on drone strategy in recent years. In 2024, CNAS released “Swarms over the Strait: Drone Warfare in a Future Fight to Defend Taiwan,” the first Washington-based report to provide a systematic analysis of drone warfare in a Taiwan Strait contingency.
In 2025, DSET published “Drones for Democracy: U.S.-Taiwan Cooperation in Building a Resilient and China-Free UAV Supply Chain” based on interviews with industry, government, and academic experts assessing the development of Taiwan’s drone sector and progress in U.S.–Taiwan cooperation.
In April 2025, a DSET delegation visited CNAS in Washington for policy exchanges. Later that year, DSET participated in the CNAS forum “Drones and Deterrence: Building Taiwan’s Asymmetric Capabilities.” DSET Deputy Director of National Security Program Hong-Lun Tiunn joined the discussion alongside the report’s authors and former U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Ely Ratner. The event brought together about 50 experts in person and roughly 300 participants online, reflecting sustained interest in Taiwan’s drone strategy and U.S.–Taiwan defense cooperation.
DSET will continue to deepen collaboration with international think tanks and advance policy dialogue on unmanned systems, supply chain security, and asymmetric defense strategy.
