Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s (ASPI) publication The Strategist on 27 January featured an op-ed by Elizabeth Frost, Policy Analyst with DSET’s Energy Program, and DSET Non-Resident Fellow Elena Yi-Ching Ho. The article warns that as the United States retreats from global climate change field, China is actively promoting its climate policies internationally to position itself as a global leader—potentially creating incentives for climate-vulnerable countries that maintain diplomatic ties with Taiwan to shift their diplomatic recognition to Beijing.
The op-ed draws on DSET’s December 2025 policy report, Unveiling the Hidden Agenda Behind China’s Green Ambitions. The report analyses 123 Chinese state media articles published after 2020—72 in Chinese and 51 in English—covering topics such as renewable energy technologies, climate cooperation, and critical minerals. The findings show that Beijing has embedded green policies within its broader national narrative, tailoring messaging to different audiences to strengthen and expand its influence in shaping global climate governance narratives.
The DSET report shows that Chinese state media present climate messaging differently at home and abroad: defensive, sovereignty-focused narratives for domestic audiences, and more assertive messaging for international readers that promotes China’s leadership in critical minerals while criticising US decoupling. These narratives also frequently invoke official slogans such as “a community with a shared future for mankind” and “Xi Jinping Thought on Ecological Civilisation,” closely aligning climate messaging with China’s broader foreign policy objectives.
The op-ed argues that such propaganda not only serves to legitimise China’s domestic policies but also repackages its top-down authoritarian governance model as a transferable template for other countries navigating climate and energy transitions, thereby exporting China’s governance approach abroad.
The authors caution that China’s efforts to maintain a leading position in climate issues also carry implications for Taiwan. Countries that rely on climate cooperation with China may encounter stronger incentives to shift diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China. The DSET report further notes that several climate-related diplomatic statements explicitly reference the “one-China principle.”
While there is no definitive evidence directly linking climate cooperation to changes in diplomatic recognition, the op-ed highlights that since 2016, nine of the ten countries that have severed diplomatic ties with Taiwan in favour of China are all in the bottom 50 percent of the ND-GAIN Country Index, indicating high vulnerability to climate change. For example, after Kiribati established diplomatic relations with China in 2019, Beijing pledged support for the country’s climate adaptation capacity—underscoring how climate issues have become a key focus in bilateral agreements between China and climate-vulnerable states.
The op-ed concludes by cautioning that acknowledging China’s climate contributions should be accompanied by careful scrutiny, with governments weighing the strategic implications when shaping their own climate policies.
The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) is an independent think tank based in Australia, focusing on defence and strategic policy, cybersecurity and technology security, and broader national security issues.
